An old Taoist parable, known in Chinese as 塞翁失马 (“the old man at the fort loses his horse”), recorded in the Huainanzi. It is a meditation on how impossible it is to judge whether any single event is fortunate or unfortunate, because you can never see the full chain of consequences it sets in motion.
The story
A farmer’s horse runs away. His neighbors come to console him: “Such bad luck!” The farmer replies, “Maybe.”
The next day the horse returns, bringing several wild horses with it. The neighbors rejoice: “How wonderful!” The farmer replies, “Maybe.”
The following day his son tries to ride one of the wild horses, is thrown, and breaks his leg. The neighbors offer sympathy: “How terrible!” The farmer replies, “Maybe.”
Soon after, the army comes through the village conscripting every able-bodied young man for war. Seeing the son’s broken leg, they pass him by. The neighbors congratulate the farmer. The farmer replies, “Maybe.”
The point
The farmer’s refrain, “Maybe” (or “We’ll see”), is a refusal to label events as good or bad in the moment. Every apparent misfortune carries the seed of fortune, and every stroke of luck the seed of loss. Since the consequences ripple outward indefinitely, the judgment is always premature.
This is the moral the Huainanzi draws in its own closing line to the story:
Quote
故福之為禍，禍之為福，化不可極，深不可測也。
Thus fortune becomes misfortune, and misfortune becomes fortune; the transformations have no end, and their depths cannot be fathomed.
The parable is often invoked alongside ideas about equanimity, the limits of foresight, and the Stoic distinction between what we can and cannot control.
References
Huainanzi (淮南子), “In the World of Man” (人間訓 / Renjian xun), compiled under Liu An, 2nd century BCE.